Pratinav Mishra
Exit polls have become a major part of
modern electoral process. This data provides early insights into election
results before the official counts are made available. Exit polls are conducted
by asking voters whom they voted for as they leave polling stations and it aims
to predict the outcome of an election. The exit polls for Lok Sabha elections
2024 will begin on June 1 after 6:30 PM, due to the embargo period set by the
Election Commission. In addition to the Lok Sabha elections, assembly elections
were also held in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, and Sikkim.
However, the question remains: how accurate are exit polls?Factors Influencing Accuracy of Exit
Polls? 1-Sampling Errors: If the sample of polling
stations or voters isn’t perfectly representative, the results can be skewed.
Despite sophisticated sampling techniques, complete accuracy is challenging to
achieve.2-Non-response Bias: Not all voters agree
to participate in exit polls, and those who decline may have different voting
patterns than those who do. This can introduce bias.3-Social Desirability Bias: Voters may not
always truthfully report their vote, especially in politically sensitive or
polarised environments. This can distort results.4-Timing and Logistics: The efficiency and
timing of data collection can affect accuracy. Delays or logistical issues in
data transmission can lead to incomplete or incorrect data being analysed.Here are six times when exit poll
predictions proved wrong:-1- In
2004, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government, buoyed by victories in
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, called for early elections with
the slogan “India Shining.” Exit polls predicted a comfortable
majority for the BJP-led NDA, forecasting between 240 to 275 seats. However,
the actual results were surprising: the NDA secured only 187 seats, while the
Congress and its allies won 216 seats, contrary to projections.2- The 2014 Lok Sabha elections saw exit
polls predicting a win for the BJP-led NDA but falling short of a majority.
Most exit polls estimated NDA seats between 261 and 289, yet the actual results
exceeded expectations. The NDA secured 336 seats, with BJP alone crossing the
majority mark, while Congress suffered a historic defeat with only 44 seats.3-Following demonetisation, the Uttar
Pradesh Assembly elections had exit polls predicting a hung assembly, with BJP
as the largest party. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP won an
overwhelming 325 seats, a stark contrast to the exit polls that suggested a
significantly lower tally.4-In a major upset, BJP regained control in
Chhattisgarh, contrary to exit polls which had predicted an easy win for the
Congress in the tribal state. The BJP secured over 50 seats. In Madhya Pradesh,
a decisive win for the BJP was forecasted only by India Today-Axis My India,
Today’s Chanakya, and India TV-CNX. The BJP ousted the Congress, which had come
to power in 2018 after ending the 15-year rule of BJP’s Raman Singh.
Conclusion-: Exit polls are valuable tools for gauging electoral trends and
providing early insights into election outcomes. While they have their
limitations, they often serve as a reasonably accurate measure of voter
sentiment. It is crucial, however, for both the public and the media to
interpret exit poll results with caution, understanding that they are estimates
rather than definitive results.
